Gold going parabolic and due a correction.......or not by Steve Netwriter 20th Nov 2009
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Some will look at a chart like this:

and say "whoopeee" if they own gold.
When I see a chart like that I start to wonder about the possibility of a correction.
It does look like a pretty steep rise. Compare it to the rise from mid 2007, or the rise in the first half of 2006.
There are 3 points I'd like to make:
1. All steady growth curves "look parabolic" on a linear chart. Strictly they look "exponential". See note below.
Therefore it's inappropriate to view any longer-term chart with a linear scale.
Compare the first chart with this log chart:

That gives a more realistic picture.
It's important to understand that "exponential" and "parabolic" describe different price curves.
Now "parabolic" really means:
"Quadratic function. This is the function: y = ax^2 + bx + c, where a, b, c – constants, a != 0. In the simplest case we have b = c = 0 and y = ax^2. A graph of this function is a quadratic parabola"
Whereas "exponential" means:
"Exponential function. The function y = a^x, where a is a positive constant number, is called an exponential function."
from this excellent summary of various functions:
http://www.bymath.com/studyguide/fun/sec/fun9.htm
So parabolic is of the form ax^2 whereas exponential is of the form a^x.
Exponential means a constant growth rate, like going up at 10% per year, whereas a parabolic move is a steeper more dramatic rise. This means "going parabolic" does not mean just a steady rate of price rise, it means a rising rate of price increase, and is a sign of an unsustainable price performance.
It is important to distinguish the two when looking at a long-term chart.
2. Those are both looking at gold relative to the US$. The US$ is only one currency. How can you tell from that chart what contribution is played by "the gold price" and by "the US$ value" ?
With a rising GoldUS$ rate, there are several possibilities:
a. Gold is rising.
b. The US$ is falling.
c. Gold is rising and the US$ is falling.
d. Gold is rising and the US$ is rising (but less fast).
If the US$ is falling and gold is rising, the GoldUS$ rate will change due to a compound effect, in which case a greater rate of change would be understandable.
Let's look at gold relative to all but the US$ (the blue line):

On a linear chart, but even so, the blue line shows a more modest rate of rise.
A quick calculation suggests that if the US$ Index drops to 70 (from 75), 7%, then just the drop of the US$ would contribute a 7% rise in the GoldUS$ rate (with gold remaining constant), which would mean the GoldUS$ going to 1,220 (from 1140).
3. Anyone with no allocation of gold in their portfolio, or anyone who has not allocated all the gold in their portfolio they wish to, I say good luck.
This is one of the most difficult times to decide whether to buy or to wait. The price may just go up up up, or it may drop back before again rising.
IMO the balance of probability sits on the side of it going up. There appear to be more reasons supporting that case.
Anyone with their full allocation, life is very simple. Sit and wait.
Here are two very good options for buying gold & silver and having them stored for you in secure insured vaults:
Bullion Vault ......... and ......... Gold Money
For more details see this:
Why & Where to buy Gold & Silver
http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/2535